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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple script. It commonly acts as a form of apology. Sorry we underestimated your team in our preseason predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence wins the award. However, it creates an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or just the biggest upset.

But the current field is fundamentally different. The list of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division winners declining and longtime also-rans rising collectively. During an ordinary year, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this turbulent and thrilling season, he's competing with several other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the projected vote could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than freelancing. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to create magic from broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of hype he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current isn't a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. From the leader himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. But he has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still