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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal negotiated with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to present the documentation to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the conflict is not guaranteed, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy noted that the US Congress was anticipated to consider security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “imminently.” Subsequently, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“The plan involves five documents. Some of them pertain to binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, approved and approved by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “reflect the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, American representatives did not provide specific details regarding the probable makeup of the security package or what would happen if Moscow sought to capture additional territory after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by operating inside its territory.”

However, they did not proposing these measures would constitute assurances matching Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Kremlin stated it had not received the details of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to forces of NATO member states operating in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. A key demand involves Kyiv relinquishing the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. You know, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president said after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Russia has suggested it could use internal security formations instead of the military in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” said President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone might be conceivable if the Ukrainian people approved it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face precisely the situation we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” said the president, making the statement after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with additional armaments if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.