Daily Murders in Mexico Fall Thirty-Seven Percent Under President Sheinbaum, As per Official Statistics

The average figure of daily killings per month in Mexico has dropped by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, as stated by recent administrative statistics. Nevertheless, security experts have cautioned that murder figures might not indicate improved national safety.

Significant Decline in Per-Day Figures

There was an mean of almost 55 murders a day in November as opposed to roughly 87 when the President took the presidential office in September of last year. This data was delivered by the head of the country’s national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The result in murders that have been recorded during these months is remarkably important,” the President said, explaining that the previous month the least amount of homicides were documented for any November in the past decade.

Historical Context and Government Strategy

Fierce drug cartel infighting, alongside the government’s highly military campaigns to take on the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers rise sharply in recent times. The rate hit a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the nation's official data office.

That gave Mexico a homicide figure more than four times greater than the US. From that point, killings have been on the decline, declining to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Sheinbaum has credited her public safety strategy for an ostensibly sharper decline in homicides in the current year.

At a press conference in August, the Mexican leader declared: “We have a strategy, there is oversight of the strategy, and we have detailed monitoring municipality by municipality in some cases. The strategy is effective. And we have to keep working at it daily.”

The main elements of Sheinbaum’s security strategy encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Improving intelligence and investigative efforts.
• Increased cooperation between government authorities.

Expert Warnings and Data Limitations

Nevertheless, security analysts warned that relying on murder statistics to draw a conclusion of pacification was misleading. This is particularly true in light of the rise in other criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“That would be positive news if this were a reduction, but I think we must not just look at the murder data and say: ‘Oh well, excellent,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexican organised crime. “I would be guardedly positive.”

Per the public policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, killings overall fell by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year versus the same timeframe last year. But, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in some states have increased by as much as 200%.

“Data on homicides is no longer reliable for assessing the situation of violence,” stated Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the resources or the inclination to properly recognize and categorize bodies. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the capability to hide violence through abductions.”

Vargas noted that using monthly averages of everyday killings was additionally concerning because it may hide periods when there were especially spiking levels of killings.

“Relying on the per-day mean renders spikes of violence invisible,” he stated.

Detentions and Confiscations as Measures of Progress

Where the government can highlight the success of its safety plan is on detentions and seizures. Almost 40,000 suspects were detained between October 2024 and this past November for high-impact crimes, per government data. Over 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tonnes of narcotics seized.

“Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because actually she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of organised crime. It’s extremely in political terms advantageous,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Frustration

But in spite of these actions, Mexico continues to be plagued by high violence, with several states in the throes of cartel-driven conflict. Recently there was a notable killing of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders killed in the last 12 months.

A short time after, thousands of protesters demonstrated in Mexico City and across the nation to show their frustration at graft and drug violence.

“The administration shares [data] in a manner to construct a narrative of improvement. Politically it’s highly successful, socially it’s highly questionable,” Vargas said.