Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Each writes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has has something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
